1. SOME AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE FACTS:
21% of American adults are illiterate.
The average American adult reads at a 6th grade level.
48% of Americans don’t know where chocolate milk comes from. At least 7% of those are certain it comes from brown cows.
Less than 50% of all Americans are able to answer basic geography questions.
The US states which are the most religious are also the ones with the lowest average IQ, highest crime rates, highest levels of poverty, most incarcerated, and lowest education levels.
2. The Future?
Basically stupid people tend to be creationist and there is no shortage of stupidity in a country where religion is forced on children.
Sometime about the middle of the century or during the latter half of it, those of us still alive will experience a day not experienced by humankind since the Thirteenth and Fourteenth Centuries when Genghis Kahn slaughtered about 10% of humanity living at that time and the following Plague carried by fleas riding along on those sturdy Mongolian ponies offed another 10%.
On that day in the near future according to several demographic studies there will be fewer humans living on the planet then the day before. This will occur not because some new Genghis or Plague will ravage us (although that remains a real possibility), but because of the education and liberation of women, increasing living standards and urbanization will have resulted in not enough babies born to offset the death rate among oldies.
3. Foreign-born Residents.
For those who consider those nordic countries as small and homogenous and thereby not applicable to the situation in the USA, note that their combined population is slightly less than that of Canada and their percentage of foreign-born residents is greater than that of the USA and most other industrialized nations (Although it does beg the question of whether anything in Canada is applicable to the US). On the other hand, in terms of sheer numbers the US leads the world in foreign-born residents as it has more or less from its beginning.
4. Study by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center:
A new study sponsored by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilization could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution.
“By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past cases of collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors which explain civilisational decline, and which may help determine the risk of collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and Energy.
These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to generate two crucial social features: “the stretching of resources ”; and “the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or “Commoners”) [poor]” These social phenomena have played “a central role in the character or in the process of the collapse,” in all such cases over ‘the last five thousand years.’”
Given that we are entering a presidential election political season and Terry’s increased production of commentary on things political, I’m tempted to dedicate this section of T&T to Terry for the rest of the year.
Here below Terry sets out his prediction on the Supreme Court’s decision on whether Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to US Constitution applies to the President and requires prior Congressional action. I am not as optimistic as Terry. Politics is politics even in the chambers of the Supreme Court Justices.
You can take your pick of the multiple briefs filed in this case. It’s worth just scanning them and see who’s on what side and why.
The pro Trumpers tend to focus on the President not being an officer of the United States as included in the words of Section 3, despite the fact the section actually states …. “And all other officers of the United States.” which is an obvious catch all which includes the President, who is repeatedly referred to as an “officer “ in the Constitution.
The CSC majority dismissed the “President is not an officer“ covered by Sec. 3 argument as preposterous . But it’s interesting that the Trumpers are heavily relying on it. It’s the kind of technical argument that they think is easiest to get to a SCOTUS majority to reverse the CSC. I think they are wrong.
I think the 3 Democratic Justices will force the Court to confront the question directly : Was Trump proven to be an insurrectionist by a preponderance of the evidence in the CSC record, including the Colorado trial court record and Jan 6 Committee record?
Appellate Courts generally refrain from second guessing a trial courts’ record and determination of the facts. The Trial Court here found Trump to be guilty of insurrection based on a preponderance of the evidence but held that the oath he took was not the one subscribed in Sec. 3. The CSC affirmed the factual finding that he was an insurrectionist but reversed the lower court’s technical legal conclusion regarding the oath. The CSC held that the Presidential Oath “preserve protect and defend the Constitution “ was included in the Sec. 3 reference to an oath “to support” the Constitution.
The Democratic Justices will push to affirm the CSC decision because there is no significant evidence contradicting the lower court record. If the evidence supports a finding that Trump was an insurrectionist, then Sec.3 is crystal clear that he’s disqualified. That will give our 2-3 Republican Establishment Judges legal cover to say they have no choice, he’s disqualified. And McConnell and company will heave a big sigh of relief.
The ramifications for Congressional action for the rest of the session are huge. It will unlock Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan funding , the border compromise and approval of appropriation bills. Trump is lobbying heavily against all of it, terrifying Speaker Johnson and some Senate Republicans. If he’s gone baby gone, he loses his clout.
This is a momentous decision.
https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/trump-v-anderson/
On April 16, 2024, the Biden Administration released its Global Health Security Srategy. This is a big deal. It includes global health into the defense priorities of the United States’ and. is committed to preventing the next pandemic irrespective of what happens on the global stage. The following is the White House press release
Today, the White House launched the U.S. Global Health Security Strategy (GHSS) to protect the health, lives, and economic well-being of the American people and people throughout the world.
President Biden came to office determined to guide our country through – and ensure we emerged stronger from – the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic profoundly affected every individual, community and country, causing millions of deaths, significant societal disruptions, and trillions of dollars in economic losses globally. Since day one, the President has directed his Administration to protect the American people from future health threats, recognizing that a biological threat anywhere can turn into a health emergency everywhere. Over the past three years, the Biden-Harris Administration has actively advanced a bold agenda to achieve the vision of a world free from pandemics and other health security threats. While the United States has made notable progress over the past three years, there is more work ahead.
THE NEW GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY STRATEGY
The new Global Health Security Strategy articulates a whole-of-government, science-based approach to strengthening global health security.
Building on progress achieved since 2019 and incorporating lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Global Health Security Strategy lays out a path to deliver on the goals in the 2022 National Biodefense Strategy and Implementation Plan and the bipartisan Global Health Security and International Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response Act of 2022, which was enacted as part of the James M. Inhofe National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023. It places county-driven action, equity, and inclusion at its core to ensure the world is better prepared to prevent and respond to health emergencies, including pandemics. The Strategy also envisions using United States leadership to drive global action toward shared goals, including stronger investment and commitment by other countries.
The 2024 U.S. Global Health Security Strategy sets out three goals to guide the United States’ affirmative agenda to advance global health security:
- Strengthen Global Health Security Capacities through Bilateral Partnerships. The most effective way to mitigate the impact of health security threats is to prevent, detect and contain them at their source. The Strategy focuses on working with countries around the world to ensure they are better able to prevent, detect, and respond to global health security threats. We are announcing today that the United States has expanded our formal global health security partnerships from 19 countries to 50 countries. Over the next five years, the United States will:
- Work with these 50 partners to build, further strengthen, and sustain a level of demonstrated capacity in at least five GHS areas;
- Promote country-led processes as essential to achieving sustainable progress toward the GHS goals;
- Incorporate gender-responsive and social inclusion considerations into GHS programming, to reduce public health risks and adverse health impacts on marginalized populations; and
- Track progress toward closing gaps in preparedness and response capacities, and share those results publicly.
These will further accelerate country implementation of the International Health Regulations (IHR) and contribute towards achieving the G7 Pact for Pandemic Readiness Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) targets.
- Catalyze Political Commitment, Financing, and Leadership to Achieve Health Security. The United States works alongside partners to catalyze and sustain political leadership, commitment, and financing in health security at local, national, regional, and global levels. Over the next five years the United States will:
- Continue to drive efforts to strengthen global policies, including through negotiations on a Pandemic Accord and targeted amendments to the International Health Regulations (IHR);
- Support fit-for-purpose institutions that can drive innovation, offer reliable public health guidance, and implement a rapid response to global health emergencies;
- Further strengthen our efforts to expand equitable access to medical countermeasures; and
- Accelerate commitments made by the G7 including achieving the milestones of the G7 Pact for Pandemic Readiness to provide support to assist at least 100 low- and middle-income countries in building the core capacities required in the IHR.
The United States will also continue to deliver on the commitment to transform financing for global health security. The COVID-19 response highlighted limitations in the GHS financing ecosystem. In a health emergency, countries need to be able to quickly access financing to fortify their health systems, procure medical countermeasures, and launch an effective response. The United States is the world’s leading investor in health security, and it is a top priority of the United States to collaborate with countries, regional and multilateral partners, including public and private sector organizations, to identify and strengthen solutions to enhance access to financing for pandemic preparedness and response. To overcome the cycle of crisis and complacency in investing in health security capacity, the United States led the way to establish the historic Pandemic Fund in 2022, and we are dedicated to working with all partners to ensure the Fund excels in its mission to support countries most in need. Simultaneously, the United States continues to support efforts to transform international financial institutions, such as the World Bank, and to clarify and strengthen the pandemic preparedness and response efforts of multilateral development banks and development financing institutions to better address crises, including pandemics.
- Increase Linkages Between Health Security and Complementary Programs to Maximize Impact. The United States is committed to better maximizing linkages between global health security programs and other health, development and security programs. Building stronger relationships between these programs will lead to more sustainability, make better use of existing resources, and drive better outcomes. Over the next five years, the United States will:
- Better integrate and leverage global health programs – including PEPFAR, TB, PMI, and health system strengthening efforts including regulatory systems and MCM manufacture, procurement and delivery;
- Better integrate and leverage development programs, including humanitarian and disaster response; food security; water sanitation and hygiene; and community leadership;
- Further strengthen a One Health approach to GHS, including integrating infectious disease data from human, animal, plant and environment sectors; and
- Strengthen research networks, including for global clinical trials.
Collectively, these actions will make the United States, and the world, safer from the risk posed by pandemics and other health security events.
The year 536 AD, often referred to as “the worst year to be alive,” holds a distinctive place in human history due to a series of catastrophic events that unfolded during that time.
A pivotal element in the calamitous events of 536 AD was an extraordinary volcanic eruption, which remains shrouded in historical obscurity. While contemporary scholars and scientists have posited the Ilopango volcano in El Salvador as the likely source, ongoing debates persist regarding the precise origin. Irrespective of its point of origin, this eruption constituted one of the most colossal volcanic occurrences witnessed in the past two millennia, with wide-reaching repercussions.
The eruption in question ejected an immense volume of volcanic ash and sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, catalyzing a sharp drop in global temperatures. The subsequent obscuration of the sun for a protracted period plunged the world into darkness, wreaking havoc on agriculture and ecosystems. This singular event served as a catalyst for a sequence of catastrophic repercussions that would fundamentally alter human societies across the globe.
The aftermath of the volcanic eruption in 536 AD had a profound impact on global climatic conditions. The diminished sunlight, plummeting temperatures, and disrupted precipitation patterns engendered by the volcanic ash cloud precipitated dire consequences for agriculture. These adverse climatic conditions ushered in widespread crop failures, exacerbating the ensuing famines and food shortages. The repercussions of these climatic alterations were felt on a global scale, from the Americas to Asia, and from Europe to Africa.
In Europe, the year 536 AD bore witness to a spell of extreme cold and persistent fog, leading to the ruination of crops and agricultural insufficiency. Historical accounts from this period vividly describe the devastation brought about by famine as food scarcity and hunger became ubiquitous. Meanwhile, in China, the situation was equally catastrophic, as droughts and frigid weather conditions led to catastrophic crop failures and resultant famines, resulting in immense suffering and loss of life.
The confluence of crop failures, food shortages, and adverse meteorological phenomena precipitated significant societal upheaval across the globe. Populations were decimated by famine and disease, and numerous communities experienced the collapse of social structures. In this milieu of desperation and competition for scarce resources, conflicts and displacements often ensued.
Contemporary historical records bear witness to the disintegration of societal orders in various regions, often resulting in migrations and the displacement of entire communities. These migrations, characterized by upheaval and destitution, exerted lasting effects, reconfiguring the demographic and political landscapes of many regions.
The hardships endured during 536 AD fostered ideal conditions for the outbreak and propagation of infectious diseases. Malnutrition and the physical debilitation of populations rendered them highly susceptible to epidemics. The ensuing years witnessed the proliferation of various diseases, with accounts of widespread pestilence and suffering.
While the exact nature of these diseases remains a subject of historical debate, their catastrophic consequences are unequivocally documented in contemporaneous records. The impact of these diseases, when compounded with the other tribulations of the time, further contributed to the heightened mortality rates of this period and ushered in that period in history we call The Dark Ages.
It should be noted, that these dolorous impacts on humanity resulted from a single year’s climate events. What will be the havoc of a permanent alteration of the earth’s climate that we are facing within the next fifty years or so. Humanity is a predator species. It did not expend its efforts rebuilding civilization, but in warfare and slaughter to enable the strongest to amass resources at the expense of the weaker. What will we do?
Terry often comments on articles that appear in the New York Times and shares those comments with me and a few friends and family. The is an excellent insight into the workings of Congress.
The basic law of “political GRAVITY” still works: an elected politician follows his voters.
This basic law is taking effect in the House Republican Conference and is summed up: “We have 10 or 11 loudmouths trying to dictate to the Conference majority. Forget them and move on.” And that’s exactly what the new Speaker is, surprisingly, doing.
I’ve been waiting for election reality to kick in. The Republican “majority makers “, 16 in number, must get independents and conservative democrats votes to be re elected. They ,along with a majority of Republican members, told the Speaker in no uncertain terms that a government shutdown was a big non starter. In effect they told him to stick to the deal negotiated with the Democrats OR ELSE. Meaning that his Speakership was on the line; they were a majority of his conference and they would support him with likeminded Democrats. If he caved to the right wing they may fire him. And they have far more votes than the Freedom Caucus. He followed his constituents in the Conference. Not his voters in his Louisiana District. Smart leadership.
McCarthy lost his Speakership because he had enraged Democrats with all his lies and hypocrisy. Thats not Johnson’s style. He’s a true believer in the word of Jesus and will not lie. To my knowledge he never has. Because of that, the Democrats can deal with him and will support him if the extreme right wing Republicans try to oust him. With that backing he has a 300 plus majority to work with.
We are seeing the creation of a governing majority in the House for the rest of the Session. It’s late, but just in time. How American is that!
Johnson Says He’ll Stand by Deal to Avert Shutdown, Spurning Hard-Right Demands
What society should do for left-behind people—indeed, what society should do for people—is very clear to me: teach them things.
Education is the Royal Road to pretty much everything in modern societies, and will only become more so as we move from the global value-chain into the attention info-biotech mode of production.
Subsidize education! And if you are worried—which you should be—about how with education subsidies more shall be given to those who already hath, subsidize it via income-contingent grants. And if you are worried—which you shouldn’t be—about limited governmental resources—do the same.
But what about people—if there really are any—who are too old to learn? And what about people—and there are very many—who think they are too old to learn? And what about people—and there are very many, and they geographically clump—who do not want to learn to do something new, especially not in a different place, and are very angry because the government owes them the opportunity to make a prosperous living in the place they grew up doing what they, or their parents, have always done?
For those people I find myself more-or-less completely flummoxed.
The extremely sharp Diane Coyle, however, thinks she has an answer:
Diane Coyle: ‘To Fight Populism, Invest in Left-Behind Communities: ‘Western countries must revitalize small towns and rural communities and ensure universal access to essential public services…. There is an economic case to be made for investing in public services and the infrastructure that sustains them. By recognizing that a shared sense of optimism and a basic faith in the possibility of social mobility fuel economic growth, we can repair the economic damage of the past two decades. A country that overlooks “places that don’t matter” risks becoming irrelevant itself… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/improved-public-services-can-reduce-geographic-disparities-by-diane-coyle-2023-12>
And this is so even though such investments in revitalization are rowing against the tide of progressing technology:
Diane Coyle: To Fight Populism, Invest in Left-Behind Communities: ‘Structural economic shifts… have made urban living more lucrative. In today’s knowledge-based economy, where value is increasingly derived from intangible sources, gathering people in densely populated urban areas often results in positive spillovers… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/improved-public-services-can-reduce-geographic-disparities-by-diane-coyle-2023-12>
Brad DeLong in a recent blog post described the conflict among economists regarding the estimated increase in share of national income going to the top 1% of earners. The more conservative economists say that the increase is no more than 9% while the more liberal claim it may be as high as 15%. The real question in my mind is why should it increase at all? We are all citizens in the same economy. So why should one segment of the economy receive an ever increasing share of its total income. After all given that the total personal income of all Americans totals about 22 trillion dollars why should about 1 to 2 trillion of it be raked off by the top at the expense of the rest of us. In terms of national interest there is nothing that demonstrates that justifies them receiving a bonus over what they already make at the expense of all of us.
“As I understand things, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman (PSZ) have corrected some errors they made in calculating the top 1% after-tax-and-transfer income share that were pointed out by Gerald Auten and David Splinter (and others).
PSZ now think the top 1% post-fisc share has risen from 9%→15% over 1960→2019.
But Auten and Splinter are not satisfied, and claim the post-tax-and-transfer income share rose only from 8%→9%.
Now come Gale, Sabelhaus, and Thorpe (GST) to keep score. And I am here to score their score…
My conclusion: The numbers to keep in your head for the top 1% are: 9%→14.2%.
But—and all this is really important!—there is a bunch of uncertainty about levels and differences and about the difference between post-fisc income and what we would really like to measure that either substantially attenuates or substantially amplifies that rise in inequality. And I would bet on “amplifies”, but not with a great deal of confidence. And I would say that the sociology of inequality changes in America since 1960 is probably at least as important as the money flows, and that I get confused about it whenever I try to think about it…”
THE FOG IS CLEARING, The Criminal Trial of Donald J Trump Will Determine The Outcome of The Election. It’s not the economy, it’s not Gaza, it’s not Biden’s ability to talk to the country. “It’s the Trial stupid”.
The polls are indicating that it’s really the criminal trial of DJT that is the deciding factor in 2024. Nothing else seems to matter in a currently tied race. It’s not the economy stupid, it’s the CRIMINAL CONVICTION BY A JURY.
I ask myself why? Why is a jury conviction necessary to turn all the voters on the fence against Trump. After all we all saw what he did on Jan 6.
It’s the built in presumption of innocence that stops those on the fence from turning against Trump, according to the polls. It’s also the respect for the American Jury System that is universally admired and respected. An accusation is just another political talking point. A criminal conviction by a jury of his peers is decisive , particularly in the battleground states.
The poll recently conducted by the NYT showing Biden losing to Trump by 4 points in all the battleground ground states except Wisconsin, show that if he’s convicted by a jury of a crime as a result of Jan 6, he loses to Biden by 10 points. That’s an Endgame statistic. And it’s reflected in numerous other polls and focus groups .
What’s the political takeaway: the 2024 election will be decided in the DC courtroom by Jack Smith’s prosecution and by the Appellate Courts, allowing the prosecution before the election. If Trump should be acquitted, he wins the Presidency. If he’s not tried at all, he has a shot. If he’s convicted he loses in a landslide ( or what is a landslide in the 21st century).
The Democrats could nominate FDR, and it probably wouldn’t change the outcome if he’s acquitted or convicted. But if there is no trial, the nominee matters. That’s why I believe that this criminal proceeding in DC will actually affect the Democratic Convention. If there is no Trump Trial, I believe Biden will be convinced to step aside and let the convention determine the nominee because it’s too close and too risky not too. Biden is no egomaniac. He will do the right thing if he has to. But he doesn’t have to step aside if Trump is tried and convicted. Right now that appears to be the smart play. But that can change if SCOTUS delays the trial until after the election.
Which brings us full circle: What’s the Court going to do. Personally I count at least five votes, probably seven votes, to allow the trial to proceed. : Gorsuch and Kavanaugh have previously written or opined that Presidents are not immune from criminal prosecution and would have to repudiate their long held past positions. The three Democratic appointed Justices will not delay or stop a criminal case against Trump. And at the end of the day, the remaining Federalist Society members of the Court, Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett will join the other members in upholding the Constitution and allowing the criminal prosecution of President Trump to proceed, because to do otherwise would repudiate the clear meaning of the Constitution and the most relevant precedent, US v Nixon.
So a criminal trial will happen before the election. God Speed Jack Smith, the Republic is in your hands.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/26/opinion/trump-polling-conviction.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare — A Trump Conviction Could Cost Him Enough Voters to Tip the Election
And a few days later he added the following:
As a followup to my recent blog about Biden’s chances, this explains why the 2023 US economy has done so well. The political problem is that Biden has yet to receive the credit he deserves. It’s really his presentation and personality that seems to be the problem. He’s “grandad”.
“Do you want grandad to be President, rather than the next new thing. Of course not.”
The saving grace is Trump is headed to jail or disqualification or both. Haley is stumbling all over her shoelaces with the Civil War slavery comment that was provoked by a Democratic plant, and the Republicans have a very slim bench of talent, since they are chasing off or defeating their most talented politicians.
Bottom line: Despite the polls and the odds, Biden looks pretty good going into 2024. I’d rather have Gov. Gretchen Witmer but we have what we have. Biden will have a big decision to make if Trump is disqualified and/or convicted. Can he beat one of the Republicans on the bench? The polls suggest he can’t. It’s his call. He’ll wait to just before the Democratic Convention to decide.
Trenz Pruca's Journal 
Trenz Pruca’s Observations: Rumination on the Long Generation.
If when I was five years old and shook the hand and listened to the stories of someone who was the age that I am now, he would have been born during the Civil War. If he in turn, when he was five, shook the hand of another old man and listened to his stories, he might have learned that that man when he was young had shaken the hand of someone who had shook the hand of someone who may have known Shakespeare. Three handshakes by old men represent a chain of history from Donald Trump to William Shakespeare.
(Hmm——This may evidence that, as a species, we may have been devolving faster than we realize.)
Recently, my partner told me that when she was young her Grandmother told her that when she was young and growing up near Balmoral Castle in Scotland, she used to watch Queen Victoria and Prince Albert traveling in their carriage to the local church to attend Sunday services.
This is a long generation.
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